Open 13 Provence

• Marseille, France (indoor hard)

Marseille has traditionally provided some of the fastest conditions on the ATP Tour and so it could well pay to side with big servers and attack-minded players in the south of France this week.

That was certainly the case 12 months ago when Hubert Hurkacz lifted the trophy and the Pole is back to defend his title in 2024.

After a good showing at the Australian Open, where he reached the last eight before losing in five sets to Daniil Medvedev, it’s no surprise to see the Pole at the head of the market – he’s a best price of 5/1.

That’s definitely tempting. Conditions should suit, while his form is good.

However, it’s my raison d’etre to seek out the real value and on this occasion I think that lies with UGO HUMBERT, who is more than twice the price of Hurkacz.

Humbert has really rediscovered his mojo over the past six months, cracking the top 20 for the first time, and prominent in my thinking is how he performed during the tour’s last indoor swing back in the autumn.

During that period, the Frenchman made the semis in Basel, pushed Alex Zverev to a final-set tie-break in Paris before ending the season with the title in Metz – this column backed him that week at 11/2.

The field which has gathered in Marseille is significantly stronger but Humbert has the game for these conditions, as he’s shown in the past with two semi-final runs.

His big, lefty first serve should get plenty of cut-through here, while a penchant to come to the net when the opportunity arises is ideal for slick conditions.

Most recently, Humbert made the third round of the Australian Open before losing in four sets to Hurkacz.

That’s the main worry with this bet – the pair could meet in the semi-finals and Humbert trails 3-0 on the head to head.

That said, they’ve all been pretty close with the only indoor meeting going all the way to a deciding-set tie-break. That was in Basel in October.

Another encouraging sign is there if you compare the pair’s record for holding and breaking serve.

Adding the percentage of service holds and service breaks is a pretty good way of showing how players have fared and in 2024, Hurkacz’s lead over Humbert is only small (111-109).

Go back to take in the autumn indoor swing too and the gap narrows to 110.4-109.8. Essentially there has been little between the players in recent times, although that isn’t reflected in the market.

With Humbert only needing to win three matches to make a profit for his each-way backers (he has a first-round bye), odds of 12/1 make plenty of appeal.

In the bottom half of the draw, the man the bookies feel is most likely to make the final, Grigor Dimitrov, has hit my blacklist after his dismal Australian Open exit, while Karen Khachanov also looks short enough at 7/1.

Perhaps Felix Auger-Aliassime, twice a runner-up here, can produce. He’s at his best indoors and showed glimpses of his top form in Montpellier last week where he made the last four.

Still, I’m not yet ready to trust the Canadian again at 10/1.

Adelaide champion Jiri Lecheka might do something at 14s, although his indoor record is yet to hit the heights of his results on outdoor hard.

The one price which maybe worth an interest is the 70/1 about ARTHUR RINDERKNECH.

His game should be well suited to the Marseille conditions and he did make the quarter-finals here back in 2021 before his slide down the rankings.

The home hope tends to get his best results on the faster surfaces. He made quarter-finals in Chengdu and Mallorca last season, as well as on the Kitzbuhel clay where the high altitude helps the big servers considerably.

Admittedly, there’s little in the recent formbook to suggest he’s ready to contend here but he did make the last eight of the Challenger event in Quimper (as well as winning the doubles title) recently so is bedded in on indoor hard.

Still, if any tournament can help Rinderknech reproduce his best tennis, then it may well be this one.

Expect him to slam down plenty of aces and if that occurs – and his second serve holds up – then it’s certainly possible be could go deep.

A small bet looks worth a try at 50/1 or bigger.

Posted at 1805 GMT on 04/02/24

Dallas Open

• Dallas, USA (indoor hard)

Will appear here…

Cordoba Open

• Cordoba, Argentina (outdoor clay)

Will appear here…

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